OPINION

We are Penn State

TURKEYTOWN, Pa.--From the outside, the political class has essentially seen the Keystone State as a reliable blue state, an assessment largely based on its six-cycle streak of voting for the Democratic presidential nominee.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the Sabato's Crystal Ball online publication at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, says there is an argument to be made that Pennsylvania makes a fairly decent microcosm of where the country stands right now in terms of who holds the power in government--and it's a decent bellwether by which to gauge next November's midterm elections.

As goes Pennsylvania's sentiments, so goes the majority of the House in the 2018 midterms.

First, some background: Outside of two instances in modern history, presidents always lose House seats in their first midterms; it is a brake-pedal reaction to whatever the party in power has been doing in the first two years.

And for the first time in a very long time, Pennsylvania is expected have four open contests in the state: seats held by Republicans who have vacated due to retirement (Rep. Charlie Dent), scandal (Rep. Tim Murphy), or seeking higher office (Rep. Lou Barletta).

All of this makes for the perfect window into what might be going on in the rest of the country.

"There are a lot of elements of Pennsylvania's congressional districts that show up nationally," said Kondik. "First of all, Republicans drew the Keystone State map to favor their party, which was true in many other key states across the country. Not all, but many, particularly across the Rust Belt."

It is a 13-5 Republican majority that has held up in three straight House elections. But none of those elections had a strong Democratic tide. That tide seems likely to come in 2018.

"The president's party often struggles in midterm elections," Kondik explained, "particularly a party led by an unpopular president, as Donald Trump is, at least at the moment."

Ultimately, one would expect that Democrats would have to chip away at the big GOP congressional majority in Pennsylvania to win the House back.

The key for Democrats is to make some of these GOP-held seats more winnable with moderate Democrats who reflect the moderate attitudes and values of the districts. It is a key that is challenging for a party agonizing over its identity and fractures.

Tom Davis, former Virginia congressman and National Republican Congressional Committee chairman, has noted the increasing tendency for House elections to be more "parliamentary," meaning that the personal attributes of the candidates may matter a little bit less than they used to as they are replaced by big-picture national forces and partisanship.

"If we see that kind of dynamic next year, and if Democrats have the wind at their backs, it's possible that solidly left-of-center Democratic candidates could get elected in places where one might not expect," Kondik says. "With all that said, I certainly think it would be wise for Democrats to try to find candidates who can tack to the center in some of these Republican-leaning districts and are at least moderate on core social issues, like abortion and gun rights."

A lot can happen between now and next November. But if there is one place to watch in order to see what the trends are, it's the Keystone State.

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Salena Zito is a CNN political analyst, and a staff reporter and columnist for the Washington Examiner.

Editorial on 10/18/2017

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